President Gerald R. Ford 1913-2006

Was sad to hear of the passing of a great statesman, former President Gerald Ford.
Had the opprtunity to meet him once, back in 1978 at the old Amana Open Golf tourney in Iowa City. He was the first president that I ever met, shook hands with him at the #10 tee box at Finkbine. Our current crop of politicians could learn a thing or two about civility from Ford.
God Bless him.

Romney in Iowa, Rudy explores, McCain $100 pin

Tonight is Gov. Mitt Romney's Christmas Party for his supporters in Iowa. Event is being held from 6 to 8PM at the Hilton Garden Inn in W. Des Moines. Invites for the private event were emailed on 12/9. Check out www.iowansforromney.com and http://iowansforromney.blogspot.com.

Sen. McCain's Exploratory Committee sent an email to supporters on Dec. 13th to "be there from the beginning" and pony up $100 for a "official John McCain Exploratory Committee lapel pin to identify yourself as a key McCain supporter." Check out www.exploremccain.com

America's "Mr. Mayor" Rudy Guiliani has taken a step closer to a White House run by posting his own website. Check out www.JoinRudy2008.com made its debut this week.

Bayh out, Romney In

Indiana's Evan Bayh became the latest victim of the "Hillary coronation", pulling the plug on his 2008 lib party prez bid. Gov. Romney will be making his presidential bid official with a January 8th announcement. Mitt will also be sponsoring a Christmas party in Des Moines next week for his Iowa supporters.

14 months to Iowa Caucus

The GOP took some severe losses in the mid-term elections. I predicted the House would go, but incorrectly said they would hold the Senate. George Allen's razor thin loss to Webb was the difference.

I predict that Leon Mosely will be the next Iowa GOP chairman from a source.."in the know."

I'm still not convinced that Rudy Guiliani is running for the oval office.
He did announce a exploratory committee today, but when push comes to shove I do not believe he will enter the race. I see Gov. Vilsack was the first announced candidate & that Sen. McCain will announce his exploratory commitee next week. I believe that Romney is going to win the Iowa Caucus come Jan. of 2008, with McCain a close second. Edwards & Hillary will battle it out for the liberals.

Mid-term election predictions & political potpourri

Since I have already cast my absentee ballot, its time to divulge my predictions. First off I was hoping that the GOP would either win the governorship in Iowa, or at least retain Nussle's old seat (1st congressional district). I hope I'm wrong but I feel the Dems will win both of these elections. Culver will win the gubernatorial by a 53-47% margin while Braley will defeat Whalen 54-46%. Sen. Geo Allen will win in Virginia over Jim Webb by a 55-45% margin. In my upset special Michael Steele will be elected US Senator from Maryland in a 50.5% to 49.5% squeeker. GOP will retain the Senate but lose the House as the libs pick up 18 seats. Several of the 2008 presidential candidiates will announce formation of their respective "presidential exploratory committes" in the months of January and February 2007. You should know all of the players by the end of April. I predict that Rudy Guiliani will NOT seek the GOP nomination. I've said all along that I won't believe that he's running until he has staff on the ground in the Hawkeye state. Also I predict that Sen. Allen will not seek the nomination either. On the dems side, Edwards is off to a good start as he has been to Iowa repeatedly. Warner's candidacy was the first casualty of '08, looks like O'Bama will likely run. Can any of them stop Hillary's "coronation"??? GOP is a two man race, McCain vs. the McCain alternative, which appears more and more to be Mitt Romney.

Iowa Straw Poll - one year to go: lessons from 1999

We're about one year away from the 2007 Ames "Iowa Straw Poll". The Iowa Straw Poll is a milestone, a watershed moment for potential GOP presidential candidates in Iowa. It seperates the "wheat from the chaff". It doesn't necessarily annoint a winner for the following January's (1/14/08) Iowa caucus,...but it is an "elimination round." In 1999 GWB had a show of force. Lamar Alexander was the first casualty as he pulled out of the race two days after the Straw Poll. The Quayle & Dole campaigns were on life support after this event. GWB won the Straw Poll with 30% and Steve Forbes came in second with 20%. About 24,000 Iowans voted on a muggy August afternoon in Ames. My wife & I "captained" the 3 busloads of GWB supporters from Waterloo and helped coordinate another 3 busloads from Cedar Falls.
In 2007 it will eliminate a few of the second division candidates and will pose a spending frenzy among the candidates. The 2008 race is already on, with potential candidates currently making visits to the Hawkeye State to help raise funds for 2006 Iowa Republican candidates. After the first of the year the presidential "exploratory committee" announcements will begin. By the end of March 2007 we should know who the players for 2008 are. The race is on...

Romney draws warm response from Iowa GOP

MA. Gov. Mitt Romney gave a speeech promoting America's values to an enthuisiatic audience at the Iowa Republican Party's "Chairman's Dinner" held in Cedar Rapids on July 29th. Over 200 attendees paid $50 each to hear the potential 2008 candidate. Rep. Jim Leach was also on the program. Leach spoke glowingly of Romney and encouraged activists to "seriously consider" Romney. Several activists were spotted wearing "Iowans For Romney" campaign buttons.

IOWA GOP convention draws four 2008 candidates

The Iowa Republican Convention was held over June 16 & 17 in Des Moines, Iowa. Four prospective '08 candidates Gov. Romney, Sen. Allen, Gov. Pataki, and Sen. Brownback made an appearance. Romney received a warm response from a standing room only crowd of about 400 people on Saturday morning. There was a table in the vendors section promoting a "Draft McCain '08" movement, that appeared to be drawing little response from the delegates.

Romney courts Iowa Christians

Gov. Mitt Romney attended a "house party" in Cedar Rapids on May 9th. An overflow crowd of over 100 attended the event hosted by the Iowa Christian Alliance(formerly the Christian Coalition Of Iowa). The 2008 hopeful drew a warm reception and applause as he spoke of his conservative values and accomplishments in both the private and public sectors. Mitt said he will decide on a potential candidacy "very soon."

2008 activity heating up in Iowa

Liberal candidate John Edwards will be making four campaign stops in eastern Iowa over April 8th & 9th. Edwards has been a very frequent visitor to the Hawkeye state in hopes of improving his 2004 showing. Fellow Lib Mark Warner, a former Virginia governor will be making his Iowa debut on April 20th in Des Moines. Wes Clark will be visiting Iowa in May.

Another former Virginia governor, Sen. George Allen will be appearing at the GOP state convention in Des Moines on June 17th. District conventions will be held on April 22nd & I wouldn't be surprised to see a candidate of two make an appearance. Mass. Gov. George Romney made the rounds at several of the county conventions on March 11th. Romney will be coming back to Iowa in May.

President George W. Bush will be appearing at a $250 a plate fundraiser for gubernatorial candidate, Congressman Jim Nussle in Des Moines on April 11th.

Rudy rising? Giuliani headed to Iowa!

Today it was announced that former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani will be campaigning in the Hawkeye State on May 1st. Rudy will attend a fundraiser for gubernatorial candidate Jim Nussle in Davenport & will also appear at an event for the state GOP party. This marks the first trip to Iowa since the 2004 election for the possible 2008 presidential candidiate.

Allen's Iowa Debut a St. Pat's Success

Sen. George Allen made his first campaign appearance in the Hawkeye State on St. Patrick's Day at a fundraising dinner for the state GOP organization in Cedar Falls. Allen received a standing ovation from a crowd of about 100 & delivered a speech that was periodically interrupted with applause. The potential 2008 candidiate invoked the names of Jefferson & Reagan while testing themes of less goverment and a "no amnesty" immigration policy. Allen ws quick to remind the Iowa residents that his famous father got his first coaching job at Morningside College in Sioux City. Allen concluded his speech by tossing a signed green football to the "big guy in the white shirt" & yours truly hauled in a twenty-yard spiral from the former Virginia quartrback. Allen was warmly received by the Iowa GOP faithful. Several media types including the NY Times sent reporters to this event who interviewed attendees for their reaction to Allen's potential 2008 candidacy.

2008 Hopefuls Invade Iowa

3/3/06: 2008 Hopefuls Invade Iowa
The 2008 presidential sweepstakes are bringing a plethora of hopefuls to the Hawkeye state. Sen. McCain will be at the Jim Nussle for Governor luncheon in Cedar Rapids on April 13th($100 a ticket) while Romney, Allen, & Huckabee will be testing the waters as well. Allen will be at fundraisers for the Iowa GOP @$50 a ticket in Waterloo on St. Patty's Day & Davenport on 3/18. This will be Allen's first visit to Iowa. His father started his coaching career at Morningside College in Sioux City. Huckabee will be at Des Moines Christian school in Urbandale this month. Huckabee began courting Iowa Christian Conservatives in 2004 as he attended several "People of Faith for Bush" meetings in Iowa. Romney is making a presence at several of the County GOP conventions on 3/11, his fourth visit since Bush's re-election.
For the liberals...John Edwards has been a frequent visitor, he was in Iowa City last Saturday (2/25). Did he ever really stop campaigning? I predict that Edwards will finish ahead of Kerry in the Iowa Caucus in 2008. Tom Vilsack could have a "Harkin effect" on liberal candidates for the Iowa Caucus...meaning they may skip Iowa to focus on New Hampshire. Harkin gathered 76% of the Iowa Caucus vote in '92 and his campaign was finished after New Hampshire. A "favorite son" weakens the liberals field & diminishes the Iowa Caucus..which is already on borrowed time for the dems.

President George Bush(41) campaigning for his son, then "Governor Bush" at the annual
Blackhawk County Republican luncheon in Cedar Falls Oct 9, 1999. GWB assembled a large list of "Team Leaders" for the January 2000 Iowa Caucus. Top recruiters among the group were invited to a photo opp with his famous father.

One of the keys to winning Iowa, or any Caucus state is getting an early start on organizing. The 2000 GWB campaign team was successful by getting County Chairs(and co-chairs) in each of the 99 Iowa Counties at a brisk pace. From there the process spreads by identifying other key leaders such as precinct captains.

The GWB team showed their resource strength at the Iowa Straw Poll held in Ames
on 8/14/99. After winning the poll by a large margin, it was a foregone conclusion that "W" would win the 2000 Iowa Caucus. The only question left was by how wide a margin would victory be?

For 2008 I believe the majority of "Potomac Fever" politicians will announce their candidacy between Jan '07 and May '07. A "superstar" like Rudy or Rice may be able to delay an announcement until mid or late Summer at the latest.

Feb 17 GOP update

2/17/06 update: McCain Country????????
Sen. McCain will make his first visit of '06 into the Hawkeye State on April 13th
at a fundraiser for Jim Nussle. Perhaps John will actively campaign in Iowa after skipping the Iowa Caucus in 2000???

Newt Gingrich & Sean Hannity will headline the annual IOWA GOP "Lincoln Dinner"
in Des Moines on April 29th. Newt has made a couple "book signing" stops in eastern Iowa & is testng the waters for a presidential run.

Feb 2006 political analysis (23 months to go!)

2/10/06
The jockeying for '08 position began moments after the Bush-Cheney team claimed a proud re-election victory. ...

Retreads such as John Edwards & John Kerry will likely seek the liberal party nomination. Kerry will have a hard time earning a second chance. Edwards is a one-term ex-senator whose views are out of the mainstream. Warner is a rarity, a democratic moderate. Hillary is running all out for '08 but cannot win a national election. Gore may actually throw his hat in the ring again. He could spell trouble for other candidates. A Gore-Clinton race would be a "free for all". If Gore runs he has a decent shot at winning the nomination. Iowa "Favorite Son" Vilsak will do OK in Iowa but will be done after the New Hampshire primary. (Just like Harkin in '92).Richardson is the dems most electable candidate, therefore he has no chance at winning the nomination. Bayh is a longshot, may end us as a VP.

For the good guys I still think Rice would win the nomination if she runs. I believe its a "one in four" chance that she ends up running. She is without a doubt the "rock star" or "celebrity" of the Grand Old Party. As for others, I feel Rudy is "50/50" on running as he has made inroads with the Christian Conservative wing of the GOP. If Rudy runs I believe he could possibly keep McCain from winning. I would not be surprised to see John skip Iowa(again) & head straight for the Granite State. This would be a tactical mistake. Is America ready to elect its oldest president? I believe Sen. McCain must campaign in Iowa & continue to court GWB loyalists if he wants to win the nomination. Allen is a darkhorse & shouldn't be underestimated. A second place finish in Iowa would make him an instant contender.
Pataki has been a frequent visitor to Iowa but is presently a second tier candidate. Newt has some great ideas but the nomination is not in the cards for him, he is also inte the second tier. Cheney is not running. I expect to see many of the potential '08 candidate spending time in Iowa this summer campaigning for gubernatorial & congressional candidates. At that time, some clarity will emerge.

God Bless-
Jim