Sunday, August 06, 2006

Iowa Straw Poll - one year to go: lessons from 1999


We're about one year away from the 2007 Ames "Iowa Straw Poll". The Iowa Straw Poll is a milestone, a watershed moment for potential GOP presidential candidates in Iowa. It seperates the "wheat from the chaff". It doesn't necessarily annoint a winner for the following January's (1/14/08) Iowa caucus,...but it is an "elimination round." In 1999 GWB had a show of force. Lamar Alexander was the first casualty as he pulled out of the race two days after the Straw Poll. The Quayle & Dole campaigns were on life support after this event. GWB won the Straw Poll with 30% and Steve Forbes came in second with 20%. About 24,000 Iowans voted on a muggy August afternoon in Ames. My wife & I "captained" the 3 busloads of GWB supporters from Waterloo and helped coordinate another 3 busloads from Cedar Falls.
In 2007 it will eliminate a few of the second division candidates and will pose a spending frenzy among the candidates. The 2008 race is already on, with potential candidates currently making visits to the Hawkeye State to help raise funds for 2006 Iowa Republican candidates. After the first of the year the presidential "exploratory committee" announcements will begin. By the end of March 2007 we should know who the players for 2008 are. The race is on...