Feb 2006 political analysis (23 months to go!)

2/10/06
The jockeying for '08 position began moments after the Bush-Cheney team claimed a proud re-election victory. ...

Retreads such as John Edwards & John Kerry will likely seek the liberal party nomination. Kerry will have a hard time earning a second chance. Edwards is a one-term ex-senator whose views are out of the mainstream. Warner is a rarity, a democratic moderate. Hillary is running all out for '08 but cannot win a national election. Gore may actually throw his hat in the ring again. He could spell trouble for other candidates. A Gore-Clinton race would be a "free for all". If Gore runs he has a decent shot at winning the nomination. Iowa "Favorite Son" Vilsak will do OK in Iowa but will be done after the New Hampshire primary. (Just like Harkin in '92).Richardson is the dems most electable candidate, therefore he has no chance at winning the nomination. Bayh is a longshot, may end us as a VP.

For the good guys I still think Rice would win the nomination if she runs. I believe its a "one in four" chance that she ends up running. She is without a doubt the "rock star" or "celebrity" of the Grand Old Party. As for others, I feel Rudy is "50/50" on running as he has made inroads with the Christian Conservative wing of the GOP. If Rudy runs I believe he could possibly keep McCain from winning. I would not be surprised to see John skip Iowa(again) & head straight for the Granite State. This would be a tactical mistake. Is America ready to elect its oldest president? I believe Sen. McCain must campaign in Iowa & continue to court GWB loyalists if he wants to win the nomination. Allen is a darkhorse & shouldn't be underestimated. A second place finish in Iowa would make him an instant contender.
Pataki has been a frequent visitor to Iowa but is presently a second tier candidate. Newt has some great ideas but the nomination is not in the cards for him, he is also inte the second tier. Cheney is not running. I expect to see many of the potential '08 candidate spending time in Iowa this summer campaigning for gubernatorial & congressional candidates. At that time, some clarity will emerge.

God Bless-
Jim