Sunday, August 06, 2006

Iowa Straw Poll - one year to go: lessons from 1999


We're about one year away from the 2007 Ames "Iowa Straw Poll". The Iowa Straw Poll is a milestone, a watershed moment for potential GOP presidential candidates in Iowa. It seperates the "wheat from the chaff". It doesn't necessarily annoint a winner for the following January's (1/14/08) Iowa caucus,...but it is an "elimination round." In 1999 GWB had a show of force. Lamar Alexander was the first casualty as he pulled out of the race two days after the Straw Poll. The Quayle & Dole campaigns were on life support after this event. GWB won the Straw Poll with 30% and Steve Forbes came in second with 20%. About 24,000 Iowans voted on a muggy August afternoon in Ames. My wife & I "captained" the 3 busloads of GWB supporters from Waterloo and helped coordinate another 3 busloads from Cedar Falls.
In 2007 it will eliminate a few of the second division candidates and will pose a spending frenzy among the candidates. The 2008 race is already on, with potential candidates currently making visits to the Hawkeye State to help raise funds for 2006 Iowa Republican candidates. After the first of the year the presidential "exploratory committee" announcements will begin. By the end of March 2007 we should know who the players for 2008 are. The race is on...

13 comments:

IOWACAUCUS2008 said...

JS-
I mainly cover the GOP but will occasionally make a comment or two about the dems. Edwards is off to a good start in Iowa. Has been spending a lot of time in the Hawkeye state and won the Dm Register "Iowa Poll" among democratic hoepfuls for 2008. Kerry has been to Iowa a few times, with lackluster turnout(20-25 people in IA City event). Bayh and Warner are trying to get traction and garner name recognition while everyone waits for Hillary to begin campaigning here after her re-election.

Unknown said...

How bias is the poll on this page? There are other candidates besides Romney and McCain. Look at the Fox News poll from the night of their debate. With that in mind, why not compare Romney and Paul?

Abby said...

Do I prefer Romney or McCain? What kind of question is THAT? Neither!!!

I prefer Ron Paul. As do many others. Why are so many information sources choosing to ignore this?

This is such a problem in our country. Why do we allow our media to continue to feed us weak, inaccurate and incomplete information?

HectorinMiami said...

Understandably, Ron Paul is not getting air time due to many reasons but one is definitely because he doesn't have the big bucks like other candidates (although he is 4th largest campaign fundraiser). If you are in Iowa and want to help Ron Paul then join other Iowans at RonPaul.meetup.com

huntjp123 said...

What's up with the poll here? How about Mike Huckabee!

Unknown said...

Romney or McCain? I support Tom Tancredo!

Pepper said...

Romney or McCain???? How about Thompson (Fred), Hunter, Tancredo, and Ron Paul?

Brian Helmrichs said...

WHERE IS RON PAUL ONCE AGAIN THE IOWA GOP WILL LOOK LIKE FOOLISH FOR EXCLUDING DR. PAUL, AND EVEN WORSE WHEN HE WINS!

Brian Helmrichs said...

IT WAS CLEAR IN DES MOINES AT THE IOWANS FOR TAX REFORM FORUM THAT DR. PAUL IS MORE VIABLE THEN MOST, DID U FORGET WE BROUGHT AS MANY PEOPLE AS ROMNEY AND ALL THE OTHERS COMBINED? YOU WILL NOT STOP US THIS IS OUR COUNTRY TOO AND YOUR CONTIINUED CENSORSHIP IS UNAMERICAN AND YOU SHOULD BE ASHAMED, IF HE ISN'T VIABLE PUT HIM ON THE POLL AND LETS LET THE NUMBERS BE THE JUDGE!

Rebecca said...

I like Mike!

Andy said...

Hey Brian you can't "look like foolish" you can "look foolish" or "look like a fool" and Ron Paul doesn't have a chance. He won't get enough support.

APFN a/k/a Kenneth L. Vardon said...

Hey Andy, Ron Paul have a chance. A BIG chance.

gwenstefni said...

The Ames Straw Poll is a straw poll that takes place in Ames, Iowa, on a Saturday in August of years in an election cycle in which the Republican presidential nomination seems to be undecided that is, in years without an incumbent Republican President running for re-election. Though several different pre-Iowa Caucus straw polls take place in Iowa, the Ames Straw Poll is by far the most prominent, because it draws voters from all over the state rather than just the local area Ames is near the geographic center of Iowa, making travel there more convenient, and is thus also commonly known as the Iowa Straw Poll. The Ames Straw Poll was first held in 1979.
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Gwenstefni


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