2008 activity heating up in Iowa

Liberal candidate John Edwards will be making four campaign stops in eastern Iowa over April 8th & 9th. Edwards has been a very frequent visitor to the Hawkeye state in hopes of improving his 2004 showing. Fellow Lib Mark Warner, a former Virginia governor will be making his Iowa debut on April 20th in Des Moines. Wes Clark will be visiting Iowa in May.

Another former Virginia governor, Sen. George Allen will be appearing at the GOP state convention in Des Moines on June 17th. District conventions will be held on April 22nd & I wouldn't be surprised to see a candidate of two make an appearance. Mass. Gov. George Romney made the rounds at several of the county conventions on March 11th. Romney will be coming back to Iowa in May.

President George W. Bush will be appearing at a $250 a plate fundraiser for gubernatorial candidate, Congressman Jim Nussle in Des Moines on April 11th.

Rudy rising? Giuliani headed to Iowa!

Today it was announced that former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani will be campaigning in the Hawkeye State on May 1st. Rudy will attend a fundraiser for gubernatorial candidate Jim Nussle in Davenport & will also appear at an event for the state GOP party. This marks the first trip to Iowa since the 2004 election for the possible 2008 presidential candidiate.

Allen's Iowa Debut a St. Pat's Success

Sen. George Allen made his first campaign appearance in the Hawkeye State on St. Patrick's Day at a fundraising dinner for the state GOP organization in Cedar Falls. Allen received a standing ovation from a crowd of about 100 & delivered a speech that was periodically interrupted with applause. The potential 2008 candidiate invoked the names of Jefferson & Reagan while testing themes of less goverment and a "no amnesty" immigration policy. Allen ws quick to remind the Iowa residents that his famous father got his first coaching job at Morningside College in Sioux City. Allen concluded his speech by tossing a signed green football to the "big guy in the white shirt" & yours truly hauled in a twenty-yard spiral from the former Virginia quartrback. Allen was warmly received by the Iowa GOP faithful. Several media types including the NY Times sent reporters to this event who interviewed attendees for their reaction to Allen's potential 2008 candidacy.

2008 Hopefuls Invade Iowa

3/3/06: 2008 Hopefuls Invade Iowa
The 2008 presidential sweepstakes are bringing a plethora of hopefuls to the Hawkeye state. Sen. McCain will be at the Jim Nussle for Governor luncheon in Cedar Rapids on April 13th($100 a ticket) while Romney, Allen, & Huckabee will be testing the waters as well. Allen will be at fundraisers for the Iowa GOP @$50 a ticket in Waterloo on St. Patty's Day & Davenport on 3/18. This will be Allen's first visit to Iowa. His father started his coaching career at Morningside College in Sioux City. Huckabee will be at Des Moines Christian school in Urbandale this month. Huckabee began courting Iowa Christian Conservatives in 2004 as he attended several "People of Faith for Bush" meetings in Iowa. Romney is making a presence at several of the County GOP conventions on 3/11, his fourth visit since Bush's re-election.
For the liberals...John Edwards has been a frequent visitor, he was in Iowa City last Saturday (2/25). Did he ever really stop campaigning? I predict that Edwards will finish ahead of Kerry in the Iowa Caucus in 2008. Tom Vilsack could have a "Harkin effect" on liberal candidates for the Iowa Caucus...meaning they may skip Iowa to focus on New Hampshire. Harkin gathered 76% of the Iowa Caucus vote in '92 and his campaign was finished after New Hampshire. A "favorite son" weakens the liberals field & diminishes the Iowa Caucus..which is already on borrowed time for the dems.

President George Bush(41) campaigning for his son, then "Governor Bush" at the annual
Blackhawk County Republican luncheon in Cedar Falls Oct 9, 1999. GWB assembled a large list of "Team Leaders" for the January 2000 Iowa Caucus. Top recruiters among the group were invited to a photo opp with his famous father.

One of the keys to winning Iowa, or any Caucus state is getting an early start on organizing. The 2000 GWB campaign team was successful by getting County Chairs(and co-chairs) in each of the 99 Iowa Counties at a brisk pace. From there the process spreads by identifying other key leaders such as precinct captains.

The GWB team showed their resource strength at the Iowa Straw Poll held in Ames
on 8/14/99. After winning the poll by a large margin, it was a foregone conclusion that "W" would win the 2000 Iowa Caucus. The only question left was by how wide a margin would victory be?

For 2008 I believe the majority of "Potomac Fever" politicians will announce their candidacy between Jan '07 and May '07. A "superstar" like Rudy or Rice may be able to delay an announcement until mid or late Summer at the latest.

Feb 17 GOP update

2/17/06 update: McCain Country????????
Sen. McCain will make his first visit of '06 into the Hawkeye State on April 13th
at a fundraiser for Jim Nussle. Perhaps John will actively campaign in Iowa after skipping the Iowa Caucus in 2000???

Newt Gingrich & Sean Hannity will headline the annual IOWA GOP "Lincoln Dinner"
in Des Moines on April 29th. Newt has made a couple "book signing" stops in eastern Iowa & is testng the waters for a presidential run.

Feb 2006 political analysis (23 months to go!)

2/10/06
The jockeying for '08 position began moments after the Bush-Cheney team claimed a proud re-election victory. ...

Retreads such as John Edwards & John Kerry will likely seek the liberal party nomination. Kerry will have a hard time earning a second chance. Edwards is a one-term ex-senator whose views are out of the mainstream. Warner is a rarity, a democratic moderate. Hillary is running all out for '08 but cannot win a national election. Gore may actually throw his hat in the ring again. He could spell trouble for other candidates. A Gore-Clinton race would be a "free for all". If Gore runs he has a decent shot at winning the nomination. Iowa "Favorite Son" Vilsak will do OK in Iowa but will be done after the New Hampshire primary. (Just like Harkin in '92).Richardson is the dems most electable candidate, therefore he has no chance at winning the nomination. Bayh is a longshot, may end us as a VP.

For the good guys I still think Rice would win the nomination if she runs. I believe its a "one in four" chance that she ends up running. She is without a doubt the "rock star" or "celebrity" of the Grand Old Party. As for others, I feel Rudy is "50/50" on running as he has made inroads with the Christian Conservative wing of the GOP. If Rudy runs I believe he could possibly keep McCain from winning. I would not be surprised to see John skip Iowa(again) & head straight for the Granite State. This would be a tactical mistake. Is America ready to elect its oldest president? I believe Sen. McCain must campaign in Iowa & continue to court GWB loyalists if he wants to win the nomination. Allen is a darkhorse & shouldn't be underestimated. A second place finish in Iowa would make him an instant contender.
Pataki has been a frequent visitor to Iowa but is presently a second tier candidate. Newt has some great ideas but the nomination is not in the cards for him, he is also inte the second tier. Cheney is not running. I expect to see many of the potential '08 candidate spending time in Iowa this summer campaigning for gubernatorial & congressional candidates. At that time, some clarity will emerge.

God Bless-
Jim